The Butterfly Effect

The Butterfly effect is a theory stating, that very very small changes to a system can create huge unforseen and unpleasant consequences. It comes from the allegory of a Butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil causing a hurricane in China.




Consider this Butterfly Effect.






In the late 1780's a scandal erupting in France called the "Affair of the Necklace"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affair_of_the_Diamond_Necklace where a con artist attempted to swindle a cardinal over Jewels that had been originally been attempted to sell to the Queen of France.


This indirectly led to an intense hatred of the monarchy, which led to the French Revolution




Which in turn led to the extremes of the French Revolution, culimating in the rise of Napolean and the Napoleanoic Wars





Which in turn led to the Revolutions of 1848, the collapse of the Medieval states of Europe, the rise of the Nation State and eventually the Franco-Prussian War in the 1870s





Which led to the creation of the modern German State under Bismark and the rise of German Militarism under the Kaiser. This led directly to World War I.




World War I led to Communism, Nazism, World War II, The Holocaust and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire

















These horrific events led to cold war, the Korean and Vietnam wars and the rise of Arab-Nationalism leading to both Sadaam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden















Osama Bin Laden led to 9-11 which led to the war in Afghanistan and indirectly to the Iraq War








Failures in Iraq led to the country turning against the Iraq War and the election of President Barack Obama





Now, just imagine.... If one jewelry deal gone bad can cause all of this, How many Butterflys have been flapping over the last year? (Bailout of the Banks, Takeover of GM and Chrysler, Trillion Dollar Stimulus, Pending Cap & Trade and Socialized Medicine)


I wonder what unforseen hurricanes we are creating as we speak.